The Role of Immigration in Major Elections: A Look Ahead at 2024

Immigration is expected to play a significant role in multiple important elections this year, including the European Parliament elections and the US presidential election. According to experts James Dennison and Alexander Kustov, public attitudes towards immigration are largely stable and even trending towards positivity in some cases.

Despite concerns that the success of far-right parties could lead to more negative views on immigration, research shows that the opposite may be true. The greater success of radical right parties has actually had a positive effect on immigration attitudes, reflecting societal norms against prejudice.

The perceived importance of immigration is also a key factor in determining the success of radical right parties. As a portion of the population sees immigration as the most important issue facing their country, their political behavior is influenced by their views on immigration. This issue salience can be volatile and complex, influenced by events, crises, and the salience of other issues.

Looking ahead to the 2024 elections, the impact of immigration on these contests will depend on the complex forces that dictate the importance of the issue relative to other issues. While public attitudes towards immigration may be stable on the surface, more extreme narratives and fears surrounding immigration could still influence electoral behavior and even lead to extra-parliamentary political actions.

Overall, immigration is expected to remain a significant background noise in politics, even if it doesn’t always take center stage. Politicians who are able to address the complexities of immigration issues and reflect them in their rhetoric and policies may have an advantage in capitalizing on this important topic in the upcoming elections.